Tutorials
Learn the tools.
Plain-English guides to everything on this site — what each tool does, how to use it, what the numbers mean, and what they don't mean. Start here if anything feels unfamiliar.
Guide 1
Projection Explorer
Every projection our models produce, in one sortable table — player props, spreads, totals, team totals, moneylines. Open it →
How to use it
- Filter by sport and market — narrow to what you actually bet (e.g., NFL player props).
- Set an edge threshold — 10%, 20%, 30%+. Higher edge means the model disagrees with the book more. Start strict; loosen only if you know why.
- Search players — jump straight to a name.
- "On today's card only" — shows just the plays that made our official daily card.
- Click any row — opens the player card: headshot, stat blocks, related news articles, and every book's line.
The adjustment slider
Don't fully buy our number? Drag the projection slider up or down and watch the edge recalculate live. It's your read, blended with ours — the math updates instantly so you can see exactly where a play flips from value to no-play.
Line shopping
The multi-book table shows the same line at every sportsbook we track, plus where each line opened and how it moved. A half-point better line is real money over time — always take the best number available to you.
What the numbers mean — and don't
Projection = our projected number for that stat. Edge = how far the projection sits from the book's line, as a percentage. Bigger edge = bigger disagreement with the market, not a bigger lock. A 25% edge loses plenty often — it just wins more than it loses over a large sample. Nothing here predicts any single game. See Play Responsibly.
Guide 2
Sim Lab & Slim Chips
Build your own parlays and test them against 1,000 simulations — with house money, not yours. Open it →
How to use it
- Click any priced prop or team bet to add it as a parlay leg (2–10 legs).
- Hit Simulate — the page runs ~1,000 simulations in your browser and shows win probability, fair odds, the book's parlay price, and the value on the ticket.
- Watch the correlation note — legs from the same game move together (a QB's passing yards and his receiver's yards aren't independent). The Lab flags this plainly.
Slim Chips — paper trading
Everyone starts with 1,000 Slim Chips — house money. Stake chips on your simulated tickets instead of dollars. Rules of the lab:
- 10 simulated parlays per day — make them count.
- Tickets expire after 7 days — old experiments clear out automatically.
- Your scorecard — every ticket is graded against final results: chips wagered, won, and your running bankroll. It's your paper record, on this device, separate from our official card.
The point: build confidence and test ideas with zero risk. If your Slim Chip bankroll keeps growing over weeks, that's worth paying attention to. If it doesn't — you learned it for free.
What the numbers don't mean
A 30% win probability means the ticket loses 7 times out of 10 on average — and any single ticket can always lose. Simulated results are not a promise of real-money results. See Play Responsibly.
Guide 3
Fantasy Room
Set your lineup, set your opponent's, get start/sit answers backed by 1,000 matchup sims. Open it →
How to use it
- Pick your scoring — PPR, Half-PPR, or Standard. Projections convert to fantasy points under your league's rules.
- Build both lineups — yours and your opponent's, by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX/K), plus your bench.
- Get the calls — the Room sims the matchup ~1,000 times and gives per-slot start/sit recommendations with projected point deltas, plus your overall win probability.
- Trade analyzer — pick what you'd give and what you'd get; the Room totals both sides and gives a plain-English verdict: you win the trade, it's fair, or you lose it — with the point gap and the reason why.
- Trade finder — name a player you want (or don't) and the Room builds up to 3 fair offers from your roster, priced within ±15% of even value.
- Waiver wire — every unclaimed player ranked by this week's projection, plus "consider dropping X for Y" flags when the wire beats your roster by 3+ points.
- Lineup optimizer — the best possible starters from your roster, and a flag if your current starters are leaving points on the bench.
What the numbers mean — and don't
Projected delta = how many more (or fewer) points the recommended starter is expected to score than the alternative. Small deltas (1–2 points) are coin flips — don't overthink them. Win probability = how often your lineup beats theirs across the sims. A 65% win probability still loses more than a third of the time. Start/sit calls are probabilities, not promises.
Guide 4
Reading the daily card
The card is our official output — every play we actually like, every day.
The pieces
- Best Bet — the single strongest signal of the day. If you only follow one thing, it's this.
- Comfort badges — how the play cleared our filters. Higher comfort = cleaner process fit, not a guaranteed win.
- The record — every card play is logged, wins and losses, in public. Our scorecard stays hidden until 1,000 graded plays because a small sample proves nothing — and we'll say the same about anyone else's.
How to use it responsibly
The card is a starting point for your own decisions, not a set of orders. Size every play to your bankroll, skip anything you don't understand, and never chase. If betting stops being fun, get help — free, confidential, 24/7.